This post has been updated
The Center for American Progress is offering some first thoughts on the elections held yesterday in Iraq. There is no reason, in my opinion, to think anything will change now in Iraq or that US troops will be coming home any sooner. Despite the courage of those who voted the situation remains a huge mess. It is certainly a hopeful sign, however, that despite all the problems more people turned out to vote than expected. From CAP's Talking Points:
January 31, 2005
Yesterday's vote in Iraq was an historic and hopeful advancement for democracy in the country. While it is too soon to offer a complete assessment of the elections, the higher than expected turnout bodes well for the legitimacy of the new government that will emerge in the coming days. However, the Bush administration -- which did not want this election to begin with -- must not simply claim victory. Tough hurdles remain.
Security problems remain. Efforts to train Iraqi security forces to assume responsibility for securing the country have been slow and plagued by desertion and equipment shortages. Although the administration continues to claim that 120,000 Iraqis have been trained, the real number is more like 14,000, with only one-third of them battle-ready. Yesterday's vote was marked by dozens of attacks throughout the country – authorities report that at least 44 persons were killed.
Sunnis must be represented. As anticipated, a majority Shiite government is expected to emerge. Sunnis largely stayed away from the polls in response to calls for a boycott and insecure polling sites. Over the next twelve months, the new assembly will form a government, draft a new constitution, and prepare for a second vote in December. If not managed carefully, the country could easily slip into civil war.
"Elections don't fix economies." Significant reconstruction hurdles remain. Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warns: "We do not see coming out of this any of the elements of economic stability… that underpin the election." Less than one-fifth of the $18 billion dollars in aid that the United States pledged two years ago has been disbursed in the country, which is plagued by high unemployment and low levels of development. Unless the new government can deliver on improving Iraqis' everyday lives, the post-election honeymoon will be short-lived.
Update: Christian peacemakers question conduct of Iraq elections. Full story
Update: Rev. David Fischler, pastor of First Moravian Church of Greensboro, North Carolina, writes the blog Ecumenical Insanity. He has a post up on his site complaining that progressive Christian bloggers still aren't supporting the war. Does one election make all the deaths worth it? Not in my mind. Moravian leaders have issued some good statements on Iraq - one of which you can find here.
